Economist
Oliver’s insights – The RBA leaves rates on hold – have we finally reached the top?
7 December
Key points – At its December meeting the RBA left rates on hold but retained a tightening bias with still relatively hawkish commentary. – Our concern remains that the RBA has tightened more than necessary with a high risk of recession next...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Five reasons to expect the $A to rise – providing recession is avoided
30 November
Key points – Since its February 2021 high of nearly $US0.80 the $A has fallen on the back of worries about the global growth outlook, worries about China, the strong $US and relatively less aggressive monetary tightening by the RBA. – However,...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – nine key things for successful investing
23 November
Key points – Successful investing is not always easy and can be stressful. Even in good times. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things in mind. – The nine key things are: make the most of compound interest;...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Australian home prices up on supply shortfall, but at risk from high rates
2 November
Key points – Australian home prices rose again in October, with the supply shortfall on the back of record immigration dominating. Prices are now on track for a 9% gain this year. – While the supply shortfall is likely to continue there is a...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Five constraints on medium term investment returns
26 October
Key points – Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic. – These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions;...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel
19 October
Key points – The war in Israel has added to the upside risks to oil prices and downside risks to shares in the near term. – If Iran stays out of the conflict & a major supply disruption is avoided the impact on shares should ultimately be...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights 1987 vs now – rising bond yields (& war in Israel) and the risks for shares
12 October
Key points – The rise in bond yields has left shares offering a low risk premium over bonds leaving them at risk of more softness. – The conflict in Israel has added to the risk, although the threat should be minimal if Iran is not drawn in...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – For what it’s worth: why what you pay for an investment is a key driver of its return…and how do valuations look now?
28 September
Key points – Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns. – For growth assets it’s often more complicated, with the level of interest rates playing a big...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – immigration and housing affordability Why immigration should be lower
21 September
Key points – The key drivers of expensive housing in Australia have been low interest rates and a chronic housing supply shortfall. – Thankfully Australian governments are now focussing on boosting supply, but this will face various constraints...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – has the RBA finished rate hikes?
14 September
Key points – It’s likely that the RBA’s cash rate has peaked with numerous indicators pointing to slower economic growth and inflationary pressures easing. – While the risk in the short term is still on the upside for rates or a delay to...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Three reasons to err on the side of optimism as an investor
7 September
Key points – The natural human tendency to focus on bad news, the increased availability of information and the rise of social media are magnifying perceptions around worries and making it easier to be pessimistic. – However, to succeed as an...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – China’s slowdown and structural challenges and implications for Australia
24 August
Key points – China’s economy is slowing not helped by a property collapse and longer-term structural constraints around poor demographics and threats to productivity growth. – China needs to save less and spend more, and this requires...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Why the need to lift productivity and why it might be hard
17 August
Key points – The last 20 years have seen a slump in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to less than 1% pa. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns if allowed to...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – recession versus goldilocks, five reasons why we could still avoid recession
10 August
Key points – Rapid monetary tightening points to a high risk of recession and, given lags in the way it impacts the economy, just because it hasn’t happened yet does not mean it won’t. – However, a combination of falling inflation, a lack...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – the confusing economic picture
27 July
Why you need to know the difference between leading and lagging economic indicators Key points For nearly 30 years Australia had benign economic cycles so the current environment may be a bit of a shock for many. Still low unemployment and still...[Read More]